Information Percolation in Large Markets

Abstract

We introduce a simple model of the “percolation ” of information of common interest through a large market, as agents encounter each other over time and reveal information to each other, some of which they may have received earlier from other agents. We are particularly interested in the evolution over time of the cross-sectional distribution in the population of the posterior probability assignments of the various agents. We provide a market example based on privately held auctions, and show how the rate of convergence of the cross-sectional distribution of information is determined by the frequency of auctions and by the number of agents bidding at each auction. Our results contribute to the literature on information transmission in markets. Hayek (1945) argues that markets allow information that is dispersed in a population to be revealed through prices. Grossman’s (1981) notion of a rational-expectations equilibrium formalizes this idea in a centralized market. A number of important markets, however, are decentralized. These include over-the-counter markets and private-auction markets. Wolinsky (1990) and Blouin and Serrano (2002) study information transmission in decentralized markets. 2 In contrast to these two papers, equilibrium behavior in our market example leads to full revelation of information

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