Trade, capital flows and external balance: is China unique in two hundred years of globalisation?

Abstract

This study examines China's growth patterns through its exports, foreign capital inflows, balance of payments and terms of trade, and projects them into a comparative framework. It brings together, for the first time, various sources of historical data from the first globalisation era, relating to four of the most industrialised economies – the UK, the US, Germany and Japan. By comparison, it finds that China's trade expansion has no doubt exceeded that of any of the industrialised economies in the first globalisation era; however, this trade boom is a characteristic of post-war globalisation. Large capital inflows, surplus in both current and capital accounts, and the negative correlation between terms of trade and exports are not unique Chinese phenomena in the history of globalisation. However, China's trade liberalisation, industrialisation policy, FDI strategy and cautious foreign exchange policy have all contributed to the exploitation of the positive effects of globalisation.

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