High-Definition Television: Assessing Demand Forecasts for a Next Generation Consumer Durable

Barry L. Bayus

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Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

High-Definition Television promises to be the next generation of television. This technology has broad implications for consumer markets, as well as the underlying manufacturing, technology development, and R&D activities of firms. Under increasing pressure from various groups, the U.S. government must make major policy and funding decisions based on its assessment of the likely demand for HDTV. Three published reports which forecast sales of HDTV after its scheduled introduction in the mid-1990s are available. Unfortunately, these forecasts offer widely differing perspectives on HDTV's potential. This paper presents an approach that links product segmentation (based on historical demand parameters, and marketing and manufacturing related variables) and demand forecasting for new products. The published HDTV forecasts are then assessed using this segmentation scheme. Differing from the Congressional Budget Office's earlier evaluation, this analysis indicates that one report is consistent with historical data from the home appliance industry.

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1976A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables 1991New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research 1990A Meta-Analysis of Applications of Diffusion Models 1978Innovation Diffusion in a Dynamic Potential Adopter Population 1982Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance 1981Bayesian Estimation and Control of Detailing Effort in a Repeat Purchase Diffusion Environment 1990Effect of Price on the Demand for Durables: Modeling, Estimation, and Findings 1990New Models from Old: Forecasting Product Adoption by Hierarchical Bayes Procedures

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