Presidential Politics, Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation

Abstract

Several studies show no significant difference in stock market performance between Republican and Democratic presidential administrations. While the authors confirm this finding for an index of large-capitalization stocks, they find that small-capitalization stocks perform Insignificantly better during Democratic administrations (an annual return difference of over 20%). The authors also present new evidence that the debt market performs significantly better during Republican administrations. In fact, on average, they find that real returns to debt during the 1929 through 1996 period have been negative.

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