Mood and UK equity pricing

Michael Dowling · Brian M. Lucey

21 citations0/0 files storedApplied Financial Economics Letters

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Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling Stock Market Forecasting Methods

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between mood and UK equity pricing. Seven variables that are argued to proxy for mood are tested, including four weather variables (temperature, precipitation, wind speed and geomagnetic storms), and three biorhythm variables (Seasonal Affective Disorder, Daylight Savings Time Changes and lunar phases). Using GARCH specifications of the equity indices, and multiple constructs of each of the mood-proxy variables, we find evidence of a relationship between UK equity pricing and high temperatures and wind speed. However, the results are generally unfavourable towards a conclusion that investor mood influences aggregate UK equity pricing.

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References

2001Risk as feelings.1983Mood, misattribution, and judgments of well-being: Informative and directive functions of affective states.2004Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment 1995Mood and judgment: The affect infusion model (AIM).2002The Affect Heuristic 1989Feelings as information: informational and motivational functions of affective states 2003Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather 1983Affect, generalization, and the perception of risk.

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2013Moon Phases, Mood and Stock Market Returns 2016Red sky at night or in the morning, to the equity market neither a delight nor a warning: the weather effect re-examined using intraday stock data

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