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Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework
16 references·6 citing·45 second hopsampled
Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework (2014)Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting in …Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve (2009)Forecasting Recessions: The P…Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting (2009)Dynamic probit models and fin…Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: A no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach (2008)Forecasting the yield curve i…The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions (2007)The Yield Curve as a Predicto…The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present (2007)The U.S. Treasury yield curve…The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions (2006)The Yield Curve and Predictin…Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation? (2005)Why Does the Yield Curve Pred…What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth? (2005)What does the yield curve tel…The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach (2005)The macroeconomy and the yiel…Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach (2005)Measuring the Effects of Mone…Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?* (2005)Does the Yield Spread Predict…Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields (2003)Forecasting the Term Structur…A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables (2003)A no-arbitrage vector autoreg…The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank (1997)The predictive power of the t…Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation (1997)Postwar U.S. Business Cycles:…The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity (1991)The Term Structure as a Predi…Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks (2020)Predicting systemic financial…Modeling and predicting U.S. recessions using machine learning techniques (2020)Modeling and predicting U.S. …A comparison of multitask and single task learning with artificial neural networks for yield curve forecasting (2018)A comparison of multitask and…Yield Curve Point Triplets in Recession Forecasting (2015)Yield Curve Point Triplets in…Forecasting Daily and Monthly Exchange Rates with Machine Learning Techniques (2015)Forecasting Daily and Monthly…Forecasting the U.S. real house price index (2014)Forecasting the U.S. real hou…Econometric policy evaluation: A critique (1976)Limited-dependent and qualitative variables in econometrics (1983)The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission (1989)A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables (1999)Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices (2001)The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, by John Maynard Keynes (1936)The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. (1936)Macroeconomics and Reality (1980)The Band Pass Filter (1999)On Adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter for the Frequency of Observations (2002)Measuring Uncertainty (2015)Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission (1995)Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy (2005)Large Bayesian vector auto regressions (2009)High Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect (2013)Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound (2016)Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework (1983)Discretion versus policy rules in practice (1993)The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective (1999)Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts (2008)Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve (2018)The theory and practice of econometrics (1986)The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates (1987)Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy (2009)Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations (2012)Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves (1987)A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates (2009)The Econometrics of Financial Markets (2012)Pricing the term structure with linear regressions (2013)Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes (2017)An equilibrium characterization of the term structure (1977)A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates (1985)Sovereign default and debt renegotiation (2009)A New Perspective on Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models (2010)Forecasting Inflation (2013)A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle (1989)Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1994)A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series (2005)Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators (1998)Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions (2009)Basel Committee On Banking Supervision (2010)Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks (2013)A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates☆ (2005)Bond Risk Premia (2005)Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia (2009)
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References

  • 1997Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation7,358 cited
  • 2005Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach1,852 cited
  • 2003Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields1,838 cited
  • 1991The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity1,739 cited
  • 2003A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables1,687 cited
  • 2007The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present1,337 cited
  • 2005The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach967 cited
  • 2005What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?815 cited
  • 1997The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank537 cited
  • 2005Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?329 cited
  • 2009Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve294 cited
  • 2008Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: A no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach252 cited
  • 2006The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions223 cited
  • 2007The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions190 cited

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2009
Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting
162 cited
  • 2005Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?*129 cited
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    • 2014Forecasting the U.S. real house price index120 cited
    • 2020Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks90 cited
    • 2015Forecasting Daily and Monthly Exchange Rates with Machine Learning Techniques72 cited
    • 2018A comparison of multitask and single task learning with artificial neural networks for yield curve forecasting53 cited
    • 2020Modeling and predicting U.S. recessions using machine learning techniques53 cited
    • 2015Yield Curve Point Triplets in Recession Forecasting18 cited