Effects of Poll Reports on Voter Preferences

Abstract

Relative strengths of the bandwagon (or rally‐around‐the‐winner) affect and its converse, the underdog effect, were tested. Study 1 was conducted with registered Republicans during 4 days immediately prior to the first major Republican primary of 1996. Bogus poll data showing Dole leading Forbes (or Dole trailing Forbes) were presented to voters who then voted their preference for Dole, Forbes, or neither. Findings showed a significantly greater tendency to vote for Dole over Forbes when the bogus poll showed Dole leading Forbes than when it showed Dole trailing. Thus, results supported the bandwagon effect and, furthermore, showed it as explaining 6% of the variance in voter preferences. In Study 2, participants were given bogus poll data on 2 personally relevant issues and were then asked to vote their preferences on the issues. Participants had extremely strong consensus preferences on one issue and were not influenced by bogus poll data. On the second issue that involved moderately strong consensus preferences, bogus polls significantly affected votes, supporting the bandwagon effect. Bandwagon effects were stronger for women compared with men, and for 2 of 3 PAD (Pleasantness, Arousability, Dominance) basic temperament factors; that is, for individuals with more arousable and less dominant temperaments. Implications for other personality variables were noted.

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