The Decline in U.S. Output Volatility

Ana María Herrera · Elena Pesavento

77 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Business and Economic Statistics

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Forecasting Techniques and Applications Market Dynamics and Volatility

Abstract

Explanations for the decline in U.S. output volatility since the mid-1980s include: “better policy,” “good luck,” and technological change. Our multiple-break estimates suggest that reductions in volatility since the mid-1980s extend not only to manufacturing inventories, but also to sales. This finding, along with a concentration of the reduction in the volatility of inventories in materials and supplies and the lack of a significant break in the inventory–sales covariance, imply that new inventory technology cannot account for most of the decline in output volatility.

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References

2000Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory*1990The Economics of Modern Manufacturing: Technology, Strategy, and Organization n.d.Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?2002Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?1999Has the U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle 2001The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility 2001The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labor Productivity 1997Estimation of a Change Point in Multiple Regression Models

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