Contextual Influences on Omission Neglect in the Fault Tree Paradigm

David H. Silvera · Frank R. Kardes · Nigel Harvey · Maria L. Cronley · David C. Houghton

15 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Consumer Psychology

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Risk and Safety Analysis Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills

Abstract

Fault trees are used to organize potential causes of a problem to facilitate better judgments about potential problem solutions. However, fault trees can lead to biased judgments because decision makers tend to overestimate the likelihood of problem causes that are explicitly mentioned in the fault tree and underestimate the likelihood of problem causes that are not. In this research, we examined the impact of context information and need for cognitive closure on these estimates. In 2 experiments, participants with a low need for cognitive closure used the informational content of experimenter provided and self‐generated context information as a basis for making likelihood estimates. In contrast, participants with a high need for closure did not use experimenter provided context information at all but used the ease of producing self‐generated context information (rather than informational content) as a basis for their likelihood estimates.

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1990The case for motivated reasoning.1999Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart 1994Individual differences in need for cognitive closure.1996Motivated closing of the mind: "Seizing" and "freezing."1994Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability.1978Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation.1981b'Fault Tree Handbook'2014Memory and Cognition in Its Social Context

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