Effects of the Timing of Marriage and First Birth on Fertility

Abstract

Both age at 1st marriage and age at 1st birth are known to bear negative relationships to family size but the causal nature of these relationships is not well understood. Analyzing data from a 15 year follow-up study of high school students originally surveyed in 1957-58 and resurveyed in 1973-74 this paper considers the effects of the timing of entry into marriage and parenthood on family size holding constant the effects of other variables that may create spurious relationships between the timing of marriage and 1st birth and fertility. The results indicate that age at 1st marriage premaritial pregnancy and the length of the 1st birth interval have causal effects on the number of children in the family and the magnitude of these effects is not reduced significantly by controlling for the effects of other variables. The older the age at 1st marriage and the longer the interval between entry into marriage and parenthood the smaller the number of children. Premarital pregnancy has a positive effect on the number of children that is independent of the effect of age at 1st marriage but mediated through its negative effect on the length of the 1st birth interval. (Authors)

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