Optimal Choice in the Face of Risk: Decision Theory Meets Evolution

Abstract

The problem of how to make optimal choices in the face of risk (or uncertainty) arises in both economics/decision theory and also evolutionary biology; in the former, ‘optimal’ means utility maximizing, while in the latter it means fitness maximizing. This article explores the links, thematic and formal, between the economic and evolutionary theories of optimal choice in risky situations, with particular reference to the relationship between utility and fitness. It is argued that the link is strongest between evolution and ‘nonexpected’ utility theory, rather than traditional expected utility theory.

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