CHINA'S POPULATION TRENDS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR FERTILITY POLICY

Abstract

This research used spatial and comparative approaches to examine China's fertility trends, their positive and negative impacts on economic growth, and possible policy remedies to effectively deal with the challenges. The data were derived from the China 2000 Population Census, China Statistical Yearbook, the United Nations Population Database and the World Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau. By comparing China with other Asian societies, this paper provides empirical and theoretical support for five points, namely, that China has had the world's largest number of people with very low fertility since at least 2000, that it is one of the fastest ageing countries in world history, that rapid ageing threatens China's economic sustainability, that the demographic dividend needs to be examined in the context of labour supply transition, and that China needs to abandon its one-child policy immediately to deal with the challenges to its economic sustainability.

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