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Brunswikian and Thurstonian Origins of Bias in Probability Assessment: On the Interpretation of Stochastic Components of Judgment
16 references·16 citing·36 second hopsampled
Brunswikian and Thurstonian Origins of Bias in Probability Assessment: On the Interpretation of Stochastic Components of Judgment (1997)Brunswikian and Thurstonian Origins of Bi…Cognition as Intuitive Statistics (2015)Cognition as Intuitive Statis…Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure (1996)Determinants of Overconfidenc…The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items (1994)The Overconfidence Phenomenon…Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. (1994)Simultaneous over- and underc…The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence (1992)The weighing of evidence and …Calibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues (1991)Calibration and probability j…The effect of choosing on confidence in choice (1990)The effect of choosing on con…Confidence, uncertainty, and the use of information. (1988)Confidence, uncertainty, and …Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study (1987)Facing uncertainty in the gam…Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method (1987)Components of probability jud…State of the Art—Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review (1983)State of the Art—Encoding Sub…Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective. (1983)Hypothesis evaluation from a …Conservatism in human information processing (1982)Conservatism in human informa…A model of calibration for subjective probabilities (1980)A model of calibration for su…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…The Conceptual Framework of Psychology (1954)The Conceptual Framework of P…Ecologically rational choice and the structure of the environment. (2014)Ecologically rational choice …Probability theory, not the very guide of life. (2009)Probability theory, not the v…Psychological plausibility of the theory of probabilistic mental models and the fast and frugal heuristics. (2008)Psychological plausibility of…The Trouble With Overconfidence (2007)The Trouble With Overconfiden…Subjective Probability Intervals: How to Reduce Overconfidence by Interval Evaluation. (2004)Subjective Probability Interv…The effects of asymmetry among advisors on the aggregation of their opinions (2003)The effects of asymmetry amon…Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives (2002)Understanding Misunderstandin…The Calibration of Expert Judgment: Heuristics and Biases Beyond the Laboratory (2002)The Calibration of Expert Jud…Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics” (2002)Sympathetic Magical Thinking:…Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives (2002)Norm Theory: Comparing Realit…Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem (2002)Mental Contamination and the …Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning (2002)Extensional versus Intuitive …Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition: How to Avoid Kicking Yourself (2002)Counterfactual Thought, Regre…Confidence in aggregation of expert opinions (2000)Confidence in aggregation of …How Good are Fast and Frugal Heuristics? (1999)How Good are Fast and Frugal …Evaluating and Combining Subjective Probability Estimates (1997)Evaluating and Combining Subj…Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1983)How we know--and sometimes misjudge--what others know: Imputing one's own knowledge to others. (1999)Self-Efficacy, Motivation Constructs, and Mathematics Performance of Entering Middle School Students (1999)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)The nature of human values (1973)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Effects of Word-of-Mouth and Product-Attribute Information on Persuasion: An Accessibility-Diagnosticity Perspective (1991)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)The theory of planned behavior (1991)A power primer. (1992)Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises (1998)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. (2003)Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability (2002)Narcissism, confidence, and risk attitude (2004)Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25years (2006)Do studies of statistical power have an effect on the power of studies? (1989)The past explains the present (1990)Experimental practices in economics: A challenge for psychologists? (2000)Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. (1989)Arbitrary metrics in psychology. (2006)Two-stage dynamic signal detection: A theory of choice, decision time, and confidence. (2010)Ubiquitous Log Odds: A Common Representation of Probability and Frequency Distortion in Perception, Action, and Cognition (2012)The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations. (1958)Validity and Reliability of the Experience-Sampling Method (1987)The evolution of human mating: Trade-offs and strategic pluralism (2000)A model of investor sentiment /The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings: Distortions in the Attribution Process (1977)A model of investor sentiment1We are grateful to the NSF for financial support, and to Oliver Blanchard, Alon Brav, John Campbell (a referee), John Cochrane, Edward Glaeser, J.B. Heaton, Danny Kahneman, David Laibson, Owen Lamont, Drazen Prelec, Jay Ritter (a referee), Ken Singleton, Dick Thaler, an anonymous referee, and the editor, Bill Schwert, for comments.1 (1998)
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References

  • 1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases22,647 cited
  • 1992The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence1,842 cited
  • 1954The Conceptual Framework of Psychology1,042 cited
  • 1982Conservatism in human information processing1,004 cited
  • 1994Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes.644 cited
  • 1991Calibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues550 cited
  • 1983Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective.539 cited
  • 2015Cognition as Intuitive Statistics453 cited
  • 1983State of the Art—Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review350 cited
  • 1994The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items323 cited
  • 1987Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study302 cited
  • 1988Confidence, uncertainty, and the use of information.279 cited
  • 1987Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method233 cited
  • 1996Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure229 cited
  • 1990

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The effect of choosing on confidence in choice
226 cited
  • 1980A model of calibration for subjective probabilities192 cited
  • Cited by

    • 2002Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives289 cited
    • 2002Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics”191 cited
    • 2002Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem160 cited
    • 2002The Calibration of Expert Judgment: Heuristics and Biases Beyond the Laboratory148 cited
    • 2000Confidence in aggregation of expert opinions145 cited
    • 1997Evaluating and Combining Subjective Probability Estimates145 cited
    • 2007The Trouble With Overconfidence137 cited
    • 2014Ecologically rational choice and the structure of the environment.135 cited
    • 2008Psychological plausibility of the theory of probabilistic mental models and the fast and frugal heuristics.129 cited
    • 2002Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition: How to Avoid Kicking Yourself121 cited
    • 1999How Good are Fast and Frugal Heuristics?120 cited
    • 2002Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives119 cited
    • 2003The effects of asymmetry among advisors on the aggregation of their opinions118 cited
    • 2004Subjective Probability Intervals: How to Reduce Overconfidence by Interval Evaluation.110 cited
    • 2002Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning106 cited
    • 2009Probability theory, not the very guide of life.102 cited