Determinants of Turkish Exports to European Union Countries: A Sectoral Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

In this study, the structure of Turkish exports to ten EU countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain, and the United Kingdom) and the European Union total are examined and compared. For each country, the cross-sectional dimension is manufacturing industry sectors, and the time dimension is between 2003Q1 and 2012Q2. The estimation methodology is augmented mean group. In the regressions, the statistically significant variables affecting Turkey’s exports to various EU countries are Turkey’s industrial production index and sectoral export unit price index, partner country’s sectoral imports from the World, and partner country’s import prices. Seasonal dummies are added to account for seasonalities in the data, and a crises dummy is added to see the effects of recent crises. This study enables us to analyse Turkey’s exports to EU countries across time, sector, and country dimensions and make policy suggestions.

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