Distortions of Estimates of Numerousness and Waiting Time

Abstract

Summary Distortions of Estimates of Numerousness and Waiting Time During the gasoline shortage in 1974, 53 male and 36 female San Diego drivers waiting to purchase gasoline were asked to estimate the number of cars ahead of them in the line and the length of time they expected to wait. Unlike situations previously studied, drivers were unaware of the available amount of the commodity. Regressions of both the estimated number ahead on the actual number and the estimated waiting time on the actual time were significant (p < .001). In contrast to previous findings, people close to the end of lines did not underestimate the number ahead. Drivers overestimated irrespective of their position. However, considerable underestimation of the time drivers expected to wait was found throughout the lines, with the amount of underestimation proportionate to the distance from the beginning of the line.

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