Determinants of urban travel in Australia

Abstract

This paper analyses the factors determining personal travel levels in each transport era, and its change over time, in Australia’s capital cities, and then looks at the likely future for urban travel. We find that in the public transport era, the different levels of personal travel in the various cities can be largely explained by the different average distances the urban population lives from the central business district (CBD). In the late car era, personal travel levels are several times higher than in the previous era, but similar for all cities, despite big differences in urban size and structure. These higher travel levels result from both the psychological benefits of car travel, and the ability to access activities at diverse locations with higher speed car travel. Finally, we argue that the future is likely to see public transport once again accounting for most urban vehicular travel, but with the car retaining an important niche for specialised trip types. 2 Travel past: the public transport era The first post-war census in Australia was held in 1947, so data availability is much better than in any other early post-war year. In 1947, all six state capitals had suburban rail systems, with the extensive systems in Sydney and Melbourne electrified. These six cities (along with all the main provincial cities in Australia) also operated tram or trolley bus networks. Furthermore, each city had numerous bus routes to supplement the fixed-rail systems, and in Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth, ferries (Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2005). Public transport was at its peak in terms of per capita travel and, in some cases, even total patronage. Consider a very simple model for a city, in which all activities requiring vehicular travel are located at or near the CBD—workplaces, retail, sales, major entertainment and sports venues and so on. (Vehicular travel includes car, van and truck, and all public transport modes.) Clearly, total vehicular travel in such a city is the product of the average number of vehicular trips each person makes, weekly say, to the centre, and the average distance the

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