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Good probabilistic forecasters: The ‘consumer's’ perspective
15 references·16 citing·35 second hop
Good probabilistic forecasters: The ‘consumer's’ perspective (1996)Good probabilistic forecasters: The ‘cons…Clinical decision analysis (2005)Clinical decision analysisEffects of Procedural and Outcome Accountability on Judgment Quality (1996)Effects of Procedural and Out…Making Hard Decisions, an Introduction to Decision Analysis (1992)Making Hard Decisions, an Int…Measures of discrimination skill in probabilistic judgment. (1991)Measures of discrimination sk…Judgment and decision making (1990)Judgment and decision makingChoice Based on Reasons: The Case of Attraction and Compromise Effects (1989)Choice Based on Reasons: The …Accountability: A Social Check on the Fundamental Attribution Error (1985)Accountability: A Social Chec…External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score (1982)External correspondence: Deco…Clinical Decision Analysis (1980)Clinical Decision AnalysisPsychological effects of proper scoring rules (1973)Psychological effects of prop…A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score (1973)A New Vector Partition of the…Analyzing the Use of Information in Investment Decision Making: A Methodological Proposal (1972)Analyzing the Use of Informat…Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors (1969)Scoring Rules and the Evaluat…“Good” Probability Assessors (1968)“Good” Probability AssessorsPsychological statistics. (1949)Psychological statistics.Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters (2020)Small steps to accuracy: Incr…Providing different types of group awareness information to guide collaborative learning (2019)Providing different types of …I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate for structured expert judgement (2016)I nvestigate D iscuss E stima…Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of expert predictions under uncertainty: predicting the outcomes of ecological research (2012)Evaluating the accuracy and c…Improving the Delphi process: Lessons from social psychological research (2011)Improving the Delphi process:…The appeal of vague financial forecasts (2010)The appeal of vague financial…Self-efficacy and confidence: Theoretical distinctions and implications for trial consultation. (2009)Self-efficacy and confidence:…Believe Me, I Have No Idea What I’m Talking About: The Effects of Source Certainty on Consumer Involvement and Persuasion (2009)Believe Me, I Have No Idea Wh…Decision-Making Expertise (2006)Decision-Making ExpertiseProfessional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: The case of foreign exchange rates (2003)Professional vs. amateur judg…Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives (2002)Understanding Misunderstandin…Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics” (2002)Sympathetic Magical Thinking:…Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They “Should” (2002)Self-Anchoring in Conversatio…Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem (2002)Mental Contamination and the …Do Analysts Overreact? (2002)Do Analysts Overreact?Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions. (1995)Resistance of personal risk p…The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations. (1958)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)Accountability and judgment processes in a personality prediction task. (1987)Social and cognitive strategies for coping with accountability: Conformity, complexity, and bolstering. (1989)Preconscious control of stereotype activation through chronic egalitarian goals. (1999)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment (2002)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance (2017)Exchange and Power in Social Life (2017)Intransitivity of preferences. (1969)Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation (1985)Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms (1961)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities (1996)Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? An Experimental Comparison of Observation and Cheap Talk (2002)Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives (2002)Utility approach to measuring health-related quality of life (1987)Utilities and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (1989)Non‐formal learning and tacit knowledge in professional work (2000)Confirmation bias in sequential information search after preliminary decisions: An expansion of dissonance theoretical research on selective exposure to information. (2001)Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability (2002)The Role Of Organizational Controls In Managing Knowledge (2006)Risk management processes in supplier networks (2004)Multi-criteria analysis: a manual (2009)Forecast Verification (2011)Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? (2004)Can Structural Conditions Explain the Onset of Nonviolent Uprisings? (2015)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. (1989)Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average (1998)Self-Efficacy, Motivation Constructs, and Mathematics Performance of Entering Middle School Students (1999)Trading Performance, Disposition Effect, Overconfidence, Representativeness Bias, and Experience of Emerging Market Investors (2007)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1989Choice Based on Reasons: The Case of Attraction and Compromise Effects1,813 cited
  • 2005Clinical decision analysis1,579 cited
  • 1992Making Hard Decisions, an Introduction to Decision Analysis1,450 cited
  • 1980Clinical Decision Analysis1,415 cited
  • 1973A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score1,120 cited
  • 1985Accountability: A Social Check on the Fundamental Attribution Error777 cited
  • 1990Judgment and decision making510 cited
  • 1982External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score428 cited
  • 1968“Good” Probability Assessors338 cited
  • 1996Effects of Procedural and Outcome Accountability on Judgment Quality327 cited
  • 1969Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors270 cited
  • 1949Psychological statistics.212 cited
  • 1991Measures of discrimination skill in probabilistic judgment.178 cited
  • 1972Analyzing the Use of Information in Investment Decision Making: A Methodological Proposal165 cited
  • 1973Psychological effects of proper scoring rules23 cited

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  • 2009

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Believe Me, I Have No Idea What I’m Talking About: The Effects of Source Certainty on Consumer Involvement and Persuasion
292 cited
  • 2011Improving the Delphi process: Lessons from social psychological research201 cited
  • 2002Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics”191 cited
  • 1995Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions.166 cited
  • 2002Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem160 cited
  • 2016I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate for structured expert judgement132 cited
  • 2002Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives119 cited
  • 2006Decision-Making Expertise92 cited
  • 2019Providing different types of group awareness information to guide collaborative learning86 cited
  • 2009Self-efficacy and confidence: Theoretical distinctions and implications for trial consultation.83 cited
  • 2002Do Analysts Overreact?82 cited
  • 2010The appeal of vague financial forecasts79 cited
  • 2012Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of expert predictions under uncertainty: predicting the outcomes of ecological research71 cited
  • 2003Professional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: The case of foreign exchange rates69 cited
  • 2002Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They “Should”67 cited
  • 2020Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters45 cited