Article1985

Normally Distributed Activity Durations in PERT Networks

39 citations0/0 files storedJournal of the Operational Research Society

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Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Construction Project Management and Performance Reliability and Maintenance Optimization

Abstract

It is assumed that activity durations in a PERT network are independent and normal random variables. A simple method of obtaining lower and upper bounds for the expected project completion time is described. The tightness of the bounds is examined for some numerical examples. A problem of applying the method in the case of non-normal distributions of activity times is also discussed.

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References

1962Expected Critical Path Lengths in PERT Networks 1971Bounding Distributions for a Stochastic Acyclic Network 1983The Completion Time of PERT Networks 1969Simulation with GASP-II 1985An upper bound on the expected completion time of PERT networks

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1994The Most Critical Path in a PERT Network 1996A study of approximating the moments of the job completion time in PERT networks 1995Simple normal approximation to the completion time distribution for a PERT network

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