The soft science of predicting traveller behaviour

Abstract

Predicting traffic generation and distribution is treated as a problem of economic demand. This demand is assumed to be generated by utility maximizing households and then aggregated. The prediction formulae obtained for the class of separable utility functions are compared with the gravity and entropy expressions. Some empirical results from the Detroit area are introduced as illustrations. In this case, the entropy approach does as well empirically as the utility approach. But the utility model identifies additional economic variables that are relevant. It also reveals the rather strong economic assumptions implied by the entropy and gravity approaches. Shortcomings of the present utility model based on separable utility functions are noted and discussed.

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