When a Cleared Rape Is Not Cleared

Abstract

As rape remains one of the most underreported and least likely to be cleared of the violent crimes, it is of paramount importance to understand the factors associated with the likelihood of a case being cleared by law enforcement. This study uses data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics (LEMAS), and a multilevel modeling approach to examine the relationship between victim, offender, incident, and police department characteristics contrasting the two types of clearance: arrest and exceptional clearance. The latter occurs due to reasons outside of law enforcement's control and despite being considered cleared, the offender is not arrested, charged, nor turned over for prosecution. Of the 16,231 cleared rapes in 238 departments, nearly half (47%) results in exceptional clearance when the victim refuses to cooperate or when prosecution is declined. Incident-level variables have a greater effect on the likelihood of exceptional clearance than victim and offender variables. The department explained a nontrivial amount of variation in the dependent variable, as 37% of the variance in type of clearance was between-department variation. Implications for future research on exceptional clearance and NIBRS are discussed.

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