Stochastic dynamical modelling of spot freight rates

Abstract

Based on empirical analysis of the Capesize and Panamax indices, we propose different continuous-time stochastic processes to model their dynamics. The models go beyond the standard geometric Brownian motion, and incorporate observed effects like heavy-tailed returns, stochastic volatility and memory. In particular, we suggest stochastic dynamics based on exponential Lévy processes with normal inverse Gaussian distributed logarithmic returns. The Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility model is shown to capture time-varying volatility in the data. Finally, continuous-time autoregressive processes provide a class of models sufficiently rich to incorporate short-term persistence of freight rates. Our proposed dynamical models are fitted to market data. Finally, a numerical Value-at-Risk exercise is provided that illustrate the significance of using more sophisticated models than geometric Brownian motion.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 28 citations exist upstream.

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.