Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss

Graham Elliott · Ivana Komunjer · Allan Timmermann

343 citations0/0 files storedThe Review of Economic Studies

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Abstract

In situations where a sequence of forecasts is observed, a common strategy is to examine "rationality" conditional on a given loss function. We examine this from a different perspective—supposing that we have a family of loss functions indexed by unknown shape parameters, then given the forecasts can we back out the loss function parameters consistent with the forecasts being rational even when we do not observe the underlying forecasting model? We establish identification of the parameters of a general class of loss functions that nest popular loss functions as special cases and provide estimation methods and asymptotic distributional results for these parameters. This allows us to construct new tests of forecast rationality that allow for asymmetric loss. The methods are applied in an empirical analysis of IMF and OECD forecasts of budget deficits for the G7 countries. We find that allowing for asymmetric loss can significantly change the outcome of empirical tests of forecast rationality. Copyright 2005, Wiley-Blackwell.

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References

2000Forecasting Economic Time Series 1998Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management 1996Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability 1986Forecasting Economic Time Series 1993A utility-based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility

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