CERTAINTY VS. SEVERITY OF PUNISHMENT

Jeffrey T. Grogger

201 citations0/0 files storedEconomic Inquiry

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Crime Patterns and Interventions Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis Law, Economics, and Judicial Systems

Abstract

Recent research has generated conflicting findings regarding the role of employment and earnings versus criminal justice sanctions in reducing crime. Further disagreement exists over the relative effectiveness of increased certainty versus increased severity of punishment as deterrents to crime. This paper uses a large data set containing criminal and labor market histories of a broad sample of young male arrestees to estimate an economic model of crime. Deterrence, incapacitation, and criminal human capital effects are measured, and the effects of employment and earnings on criminal activity are estimated. The results largely reconcile the conflicting findings from previous research.

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References

1978Specification Tests in Econometrics 1968Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach 1984Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R & D Relationship 1973Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation 1980Estimating the Economic Model of Crime with Individual Data 1984Research on Sentencing: The Search for Reform 1983Estimating the Economic Model of Crime: Employment Versus Punishment Effects 1987Expanding options for criminal sentencing

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2000Crime and Victimization: An Economic Perspective 2012Certainty of Punishment versus Severity of Punishment: An Experimental Investigation 2008Crime and Expected Punishment: Changes in Perceptions at the Age of Criminal Majority 1998Deterrence and Public Policy: Trade-Offs in the Allocation of Police Resources 2014Cumulative Prospect Theory and Managerial Incentives for Fraudulent Financial Reporting 2014

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