Assessing Vulnerable and Strategic Positions in a Criminal Network

Abstract

This study focuses on individual positioning within an illegal drug distribution network surrounding a reputed criminal organization (the Quebec Hells Angels). The aim is to distinguish between participants who were positioned vulnerably and/or strategically during a period when the network was targeted by an intensive law-enforcement investigation. Two centrality measures are used throughout the analysis. Degree centrality accounts for the number of direct contacts surrounding a participant. Betweenness centrality accounts for a participant’s brokerage leverage by measuring the scope of indirect relationships that s/he mediates. The final results reveal how differential positions in the network influence the judicial outcomes (arrests) within the case. Participants with high degree centrality were more likely to be arrested. Participants with high betweenness centrality were less likely to be arrested. Most importantly for law-enforcement concerns, those participants with high brokerage level were less likely to be members of the Hells Angels, thus suggesting that targeting strategies must take consider the patterns that represent an offender’s network at any given time, rather than simply focusing on an offender’s status and reputation within a criminal organization.

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