The Application of GARCH and EGARCH in Modeling the Volatility of Daily Stock Returns During Massive Shocks: The Empirical Case of Egypt

Abstract

Modeling volatility during a financial crisis where massive shocks are generated presents an ideal environment for investigating the dynamics of volatility during periods of \nextreme fluctuations for comparison with volatility during more tranquil periods. The objective of this paper is to study volatility of daily stock returns listed on the Egyptian Exchange during the political turmoil of 2011. The analysis is based on employing both GARCH and EGARCH models. Daily closing prices of four Egyptian stock market indices, the EGX 30, EGX70, EGX 100, and the EGX 20 capped were used in the analysis. The time frame was from the inception of each index to the 30th of June 2012. The sample \nperiod covers the period of pre-and post the Egyptian revolution which was shaped by extreme volatile fluctuations in stock returns. The EGARCH model was the method of choice for modeling the volatility in order to investigate the long memory and the leverage \neffect in the volatilities of the two periods. The findings reveal higher volatility during the revolution period for all indices reflected in higher standard deviations for both daily returns and absolute returns, with the EGX 70 displaying the highest volatility. The leverage effect was more apparent during the revolution period. However, long memory was more apparent during the pre-revolution period.

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