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Analysis of rates of further suicidal behavior among individuals making medically serious suicide attempts may help to predict suicide and suicide attempt from baseline characteristics of the individual and the index suicide attempt. Data are drawn from a 5-year study of 302 individuals making medically serious suicide attempts with information collected by personal interview at baseline, 6, 18, 30, and 60 months after the index attempt. Within 5 years, 6.7% died by suicide; 37% made at least one nonfatal suicide attempt. Although baseline characteristics permitted a modest prediction of suicide attempt, only a very limited prediction of suicide was possible. Almost half of those who made serious suicide attempts made a further fatal or nonfatal attempt within 5 years. These findings imply the need for enhanced follow-up, treatment, and surveillance of all patients making serious suicide attempts.
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