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Fifty-Fifty=50%?

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References

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1971Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment1,819 cited
1979Cognitive Processes in Choice and Decision Behavior667 cited
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Cited by

2003Effects of Fear and Anger on Perceived Risks of Terrorism1,332 cited
2020Inflation expectations as a policy tool?

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402 cited

2012Sanctions, Perceptions, and Crime: Implications for Criminal Deterrence308 cited

2009Rounding Probabilistic Expectations in Surveys307 cited

2020Political polarization in US residents’ COVID-19 risk perceptions, policy preferences, and protective behaviors287 cited

2000Teen Expectations for Significant Life Events250 cited

2015Measuring Uncertainty Based on Rounding: New Method and Application to Inflation Expectations231 cited

2018Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise218 cited

2005Evolving Judgments of Terror Risks: Foresight, Hindsight, and Emotion.214 cited

n.d.YOLO: Mortality Beliefs and Household Finance Puzzles203 cited

2015Divergence between individual perceptions and objective indicators of tail risks: Evidence from floodplain residents in New York City187 cited

2015The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.187 cited

2002What Number is “Fifty‐Fifty”?: Redistributing Excessive 50% Responses in Elicited Probabilities186 cited

2003Judged Terror Risk and Proximity to the World Trade Center160 cited

2004On the Composition of Risk Preference and Belief.129 cited

2002Judging the accuracy of a likelihood judgment: the case of smoking risk122 cited