A Formal Theory of Reflected Appraisals in the Evolution of Power

Abstract

This article investigates the evolution of power with a formal theory that focuses on the influence network through which control of a group’s outcomes emerges via direct and indirect interpersonal influences on group members’ positions on a series of issues over time. Power evolves when individuals’ openness or closure to interpersonal influences correspond with their prior relative control over the group’s issue outcomes. In groups with members who are appraising the relative power of their members over the outcomes of prior issues, a mechanism of “reflected appraisals” will elevate and dampen members’ self-appraisals of their relative power and the amount of influence they accord to others. Across a series of issues over time, this mechanism suffices to generate state transitions of a group’s influence network. The result is an evolution of the group’s influence network such that, with rare exceptions, power becomes concentrated and the preferences of a single leader control the group’s outcomes via intermediaries. A laboratory experiment and a simulation provide support for the theory. The analysis suggests that the evolution of the influence network toward concentrated forms of power and control is generated by fundamental social psychological responses to power and may occur in all enduring social groups whose members are dealing with a lengthy sequence of issues, independent of the conditions of bureaucratic organizations.

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