Correlation Neglect, Voting Behavior, and Information Aggregation

Gilat Levy · Ronny Razin

147 citations0/0 files storedAmerican Economic Review

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Game Theory and Voting Systems Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Game Theory and Applications

Abstract

In this paper we analyze elections when voters underestimate the correlation between their information sources (“correlation neglect”). We find that this cognitive bias can improve political outcomes. We show that the extreme beliefs which result from correlation neglect induce some voters to base their vote on information rather than on political preferences. We characterize conditions on the distribution of preferences under which this induces higher vote shares for the optimal policies and better information aggregation. (JEL D72, D83)

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References

2013Handbook of Social Psychology 1960The American Voter. By A. Campbell, P. Converse, W. Miller, and D. Stokes. (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1960. Pp. viii, 573. $8.50.)1997What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters 2006Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs 1991The Reasoning Voter 1994Shortcuts Versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections 1992The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns.2001Advantages and Disadvantages of Cognitive Heuristics in Political Decision Making

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2020Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning 2025Ideological Bias and Trust in Information Sources 2024Expectations and Learning from Prices 2018Errors in strategic reasoning 2020Correlation neglect in voting decisions: An experiment 2025Correlation Neglect on Social Media: Effects on Civil Service Applications in China

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