Contracting for Peace: Do Nonaggression Pacts Reduce Conflict?

Abstract

Nonaggression pacts are often concluded between states with conflicting interests, and we consider their use as conflict management devices. Because nonaggression pacts raise domestic and international audience costs for aggressors, they should reduce the likelihood of conflict. We test this proposition while taking into account possible selection bias in the conclusion of nonaggression pacts, and we find that nonaggression pacts indeed seem to reduce conflict between signatories. Our finding lends support to the liberal institutionalist argument that institutions can constrain state behavior and also suggests that nonaggression pacts are an effective conflict management tool.

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