The effects of disappointment on hindsight bias for real‐world outcomes

Mark V. Pezzo · Jason W. Beckstead

30 citations0/0 files storedApplied Cognitive Psychology

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Social and Intergroup Psychology Memory Processes and Influences

Abstract

Abstract Examined the effects of motivated processing on hindsight bias. One hundred fifty three college students estimated and later recalled the likelihood that 30 self‐relevant events would occur during the next 2 months. Multi‐level modelling was used to determine the (within‐subject) effects of expectations, event valence and event controllability on hindsight bias and the extent to which these effects were moderated by participants' need for cognition (NFC) scores (between‐subjects). For events that actually occurred, we found support for defensive processing in that the bias was smaller for negative events. Also, for events that actually occurred, those judged as more controllable produced a larger bias. Neither valence nor controllability had any effect on the size of the bias for events that did not occur. The size of the bias for occurrences did not differ significantly from that for non‐occurrences. Finally, NFC did not moderate the effects of valence or controllability, nor did it directly affect the size of the bias. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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References

1975Design and Analysis: A Researcher's Handbook 1956Perception and the Representative Design of Psychological Experiments 1984The Efficient Assessment of Need for Cognition 2005Design and Analysis: A Researcher's Handbook 1975Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.1990Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known.1979The desirability of control 1999Stimulus Sampling and Social Psychological Experimentation

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