Exports and growth: A flawed framework

Abstract

A strategy of export promotion has evolved into the new conventional wisdom. The alleged superiority of this strategy draws on an extensive list of empirical studies, an important strand of which consists of tests in cross‐country format that use bivariate correlations and/or production function‐type regressions to demonstrate a strong positive relationship between exports and GDP growth. By showing that these same tests support the ‘promotion’ of all major components of GDP, this note argues that these tests have no bearing at all on the export‐promotion/import‐substitution controversy.

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