An empirical study of the existence of the Hype Cycle: A case of DVD technology

Abstract

Hype Cycle is a graphic representation of the level of maturity, adoption and business application of a technology, originally introduced by Gartner Researchpsilas Jackie Fenn. The Hype Cycle concept has gained wide popularity among practicing managers but its empirical testing or relation to theoretical frameworks is to a large extent missing in current literature. This paper presents some alternative theoretical frameworks that might lend support to the existence of the Hype Cycle. The paper also proposes a method for measurement of the Hype Cycle empirically. A bibliometric study of the existence of the Hype Cycle in terms of technology life cycle indicators was carried out. In general, the results in the case of DVD technology support the existence of the Hype Cycle -type of dynamics in the visibility of technologies in media. Moreover, the suggested method for measurement revealed some possibilities for future research.

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