The Effect of Aggregate Economic Variables on Congressional Elections

F.J. Arcelus · Allan H. Meltzer

226 citations0/0 files storedAmerican Political Science Review

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Abstract

This paper uses rational voting behavior as an organizing device to develop a framework within which to consider the effect of economic aggregates on voters. Unlike most previous studies, ours permits the voter to vote for candidates of either party or to abstain. A principal finding is that the effect of the main economic aggregates on the participation rate is much clearer than the effects on either party. Our results deny that an incumbent administration can affect the control of Congress by stimulating the economy. Voters appear to make judgments about inflation, unemployment and economic growth. We investigated on the basis of long-term, not short-term performance.

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References

1958An Economic Theory of Democracy.1960The American Voter. By A. Campbell, P. Converse, W. Miller, and D. Stokes. (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1960. Pp. viii, 573. $8.50.)1960The Calculus of Consent 1963The Calculus of Consent: Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy.1968A Theory of the Calculus of Voting 1945The People's Choice 1971Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964 1955A Theory of Critical Elections

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1992The Welfare State, Turnout, and the Economy: A Comparative Analysis 1985A New View of Political Accountability for Economic Performance 2000The Political Business Cycle after 25 Years 1981A Preliminary Survey of the Theories and Findings on Vote and Popularity Functions 1981The Electoral Impact of Economic Conditions: Who is Held Responsible?1978Politico-economic models and cycles

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