The effect on the Swedish real economy of the financial crisis

Pär Österholm

27 citations0/0 files storedApplied Financial Economics

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global Financial Crisis and Policies Economic Theory and Policy

Abstract

This article investigates the effects of the financial crisis on the Swedish real economy. In order to do this, an index which describes the financial conditions of the Swedish economy is developed. The index indicates that domestic Swedish financial conditions have deteriorated substantially during 2008 and are now at the highest level since the crisis of the early 1990s. A Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model with both US and Swedish variables is used to assess the quantitative effects of the financial crisis on Swedish real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Results suggest that the growth of the Swedish economy will be substantially slower in the next couple of years due to the financial crisis.

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References

2012International Journal of Central Banking 1986Forecasting With Bayesian Vector Autoregressions—Five Years of Experience 1986Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions: Five Years of Experience 2009Steady‐state priors for vector autoregressions 2005Business survey data: Do they help in forecasting GDP growth?2007The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America 2007Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks 2003The High-Yield Spread as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity: Evidence of a Financial Accelerator for the United States

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