Parameter Calibration in Cumulative Prospect Theory for Travelers’ Route Choice Behavior

Abstract

A survey with 3 cases was carried out in order to describe travelers’ route choice behavior more precisely with cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The expression of the probability weighting function for the route choice problem was discussed and identified based on a sample group, which was obtained through non-linear regression. A parameter system of CPT for the route choice problem was established after the analysis of meaning on every parameter and divided into 3 categories in accordance with the risk level of travelers or situational circumstances. The validity of the parameter system was verified through an application comparing with real data. The results reveal: the parameter system from questionnaires can describe travelers’ route choice behavior appropriately; Prelec’s probability weighting function is more suitable for travelers’ route choice behavior; travelers show crescent sensitivity to gains while diminishing sensitivity to losses; travelers have a greater obsession over rare events for losses than for gains.

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