The interplay of employment uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe

Abstract

This paper analyzes how labor market instability since the late 1980s in Europe mediated decisions to second births. In particular, it examines which are the dimensions of economic uncertainty that affect women with different educational backgrounds. First, employing time varying measures of aggregate market conditions for women in twelve European countries as well as micro-measures of each woman's labor market history, it shows that delays in second births are significant in countries with high unemployment, among women who are unemployed, particularly the least educated, and who have temporary jobs. Holding a very short contract is more critical than unemployment for college graduates. Second, using the 2006 Spanish Fertility Survey, it presents remarkably similar findings for Spain, the country with the most dramatic changes in both fertility and unemployment in the last decades: a high jobless rate and the widespread use of limited-duration contracts were correlated with a substantial postponement of second births.

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