Forecasting United States mortality using cohort smoking histories

Haidong Wang · Samuel H. Preston

111 citations0/0 files storedProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

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Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a recently established relationship between cohort smoking patterns and adult mortality into mortality projections for the United States. In particular, we incorporate a variable representing the intensity of smoking within a cohort into the original Lee-Carter projection model. The introduction of this variable accounts for important anomalies in the recent age/sex pattern of mortality change and enables the use of a common temporal trend of mortality change for the 2 sexes. We project age-specific mortality rates for men and women at ages 50-84 between 2004 and 2034 in the United States. Because of reductions in smoking that have already occurred or can be reliably projected, mortality is projected to decline much faster when smoking is introduced into the model.

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References

1977Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control 1971Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control.1993Forecasting methods and applications 1992Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality 1979Forecasting: Methods and Applications.2002Life Tables for the United States Social Security Area 1900-2100 2000The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications 2006Sex mortality differences in The United States: The role of cohort smoking patterns

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