Factor Model Forecasts for New Zealand

Abstract

This paper focuses on forecasting four key New Zealand macroeconomic variables using a dynamic factor model and a large number of predictors. We compare the (simulated) real-time forecasting performance of the factor model with a variety of other time-series models (including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s published forecasts), and we gauge the sensitivity of our results to alternative variable-selection algo-rithms. We find that the factor model performs particularly well at longer horizons. JEL Codes: C32, E47. 1.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 39 citations exist upstream.

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.