Explaining Policy Punctuations: Bureaucratization and Budget Change

Abstract

Recent policy research has turned from the testing of static, cross‐sectional theories to time‐serial analyses of dynamic processes. This attention has renewed interest in the debate over incrementalism in policy development. Recent efforts have suggested that policy histories involve a series of short periods of instability followed by extended periods of stability. These theories are collectively known as punctuated equilibrium theories of policy. Efforts to test these models of policy have been limited to descriptive analyses of samples of policy budgets or univariate hypothesis testing. This article presents a strategy for multivariate hypothesis testing of punctuated equilibrium models based on the foundations of punctuated equilibrium theory. The strategy is illustrated with a test of the effects of organization size and centralization on the budgetary process.

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