DO DRAGONS HAVE BETTER FATE?

Abstract

Traditionally, belief in the Chinese zodiac promotes the superstition that the timing of one's birth determines one's fate. Adherence to this belief has resulted in increased birth rates during Dragon years and, hence, problems in the logistics of providing certain public goods and services (such as schools and medical services) by governments. Despite the possible economic impacts of this superstition on society, no previous study has attempted to test its validity. Using the 1991 and 1996 Hong Kong census data sets, as well as the standard return‐to‐education methodology, we do not find any evidence for this pervasive superstition. (JEL J13, J18, Z12)

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