A Test of a Partial Theory of Potential for Political Violence

Abstract

Potential for political violence is defined by a summated scale built from two cumulative scales measuring approval of and readiness to engage in behaviors which constitute progressively greater challenge to a political regime. A prevalent explanation of potential for political violence proposes that the major direct antecedent is relative deprivation. The partial theory proposed here does not assign a central role to relative deprivation; rather, diffuse support for the political authority structure, and belief that political violence has led to goal attainment in the past, are proposed as major direct antecedents. Relative deprivation is denned by position on the Cantril Self-Anchoring scale with respect to three welfare values. The measure of diffuse affect for the political authority structure is a weighted summation of items measuring the degree to which political authorities are believed to wield power honestly, benevolently, and justly. Belief that political violence has led to goal attainment is denned as a summation of items measuring the degree to which the use of political violence by dissident groups is thought to have been helpful. The data base is a sample of a population in which instances of political violence have been frequent in the past. A linear additive model of Potential for Political Violence, with Trust in Political Authorities and Efficacy of Past Violence as describing variables, shows an accuracy of prediction which is satisfactory and superior to that yielded by a multiplicative model.

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