Art experts and auctions Are pre-sale estimates unbiased and fully informative?

Luc Bauwens · Victor A Ginsburgh

10 citations0/0 files storedRecherches économiques de Louvain

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Art History and Market Analysis Sports Analytics and Performance Auction Theory and Applications

Abstract

Summary Public sales art catalogues include low and high pre-sale price estimates by experts. This makes it possible to analyze whether pre-sale estimates are unbiased predictors of realized prices. Unbiasedness is tested using a sample of some 1,600 lots of English silver auctioned by Christie’s and Sotheby’s. Results show that estimates are slightly (but significantly) biased and that experts do not use all the information that is available to them when they make their estimates.

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1983Limited-dependent and qualitative variables in econometrics 1982A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding 1989How Auctions Work for Wine and Art 1997Declining Values and the Afternoon Effect: Evidence from Art Auctions 1996The relevance of hedonic price indices 1980Sample Selectivity and the Estimation of Labor Supply Functions 1986Direct test of the rational expectation hypothesis

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