PURCHASING POWER PARITY AND BLACK-MARKET EXCHANGE RATES

William Patton Culbertson

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Abstract

This paper develops a theory of black-market exchange rate determination as a function of the market-clearing rate, the official rate and changes in official reserve levels. The model is tested for three countries over the period 1952–1971 by using purchasing-power-parity calculations as approximations of the equilibrium rate. The results indicate that relative rates of inflation are the dominant forces influencing equilibrium exchange rates.

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1981Management of Foreign Exchange Risk: A Review Article 1991The black market for dollars in Chile 1981A Note on the Efficiency of Black Markets in Foreign Currencies 1989Empirical regularities in black markets for currency 1998CHINA'S FOREIGN EXCHANGE BLACK MARKET AND EXCHANGE FLIGHT: ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE POLICY 2001Volatility spillovers in East European black-market exchange rates 1984An analysis of the black market exchange rate in a developing economy — The case of Turkey 1988The black market for foreign exchange

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