Article2010

Reliability Methods Applicable to Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Method

Jennifer Q. Retherford · Mark P. McDonald

54 citations0/0 files storedTransportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board

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Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design Reliability and Maintenance Optimization Asphalt Pavement Performance Evaluation

Abstract

Pavement design incorporates a large number of variable design parameters. The combination of the variances associated with input variables contributes to component and system reliability, and this combination of variances can have a significant effect on the predicted performance of the pavement. Reliability analysis provides a solution to this design problem. Numerous reliability methods are available and applicable to pavement design. Previously implemented reliability methods incorporate only a few basic reliability concepts, typically by using the first and second moments of the random variables. Additional reliability methods are available to design engineers, and more advanced methods can be easily used in pavement design. Many advanced reliability methods were viewed as excessively and computationally expensive. Advancements in both the methods and the computational power available to the designer make a number of reliability methods cost-efficient. Ultimately, reliability analysis in pavement design is most useful if it can be efficiently and accurately applied to components of pavement design and the combination of these components in an overall system analysis. This study investigates potential reliability methods and discusses their advantages and disadvantages in the mechanistic–empirical design approach to pavement design. The mechanistic–empirical design procedure is used to establish failure limit states for the reliability analysis. The results from numerous reliability methods are compared with a Monte Carlo simulation. The accuracies of the methods in relation to the simulation method and the computational costs are then compared and discussed.

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References

1978Structural reliability under combined random load sequences 2006Methods of structural safety 1999Probability, reliability and statistical methods in engineering design 1979Narrow Reliability Bounds for Structural Systems 2001Probability, Reliability and Statistical Methods in Engineering Design 1990Advanced probabilistic structural analysis method for implicit performance functions 1969A probability-based structural code.

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2018Effect of uncertain material property on system reliability in mechanistic-empirical pavement design 2023Toward a Comprehensive Pavement Reliability Analysis Approach 2012Load and Resistance Factors and Design Parameter Offsets for Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide 2011Unified Approach for Uncertainty Analysis Using the AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide 2018Towards a Reliability-Based Pavement Design using Response Surface Methods 2024An efficient analysis method for system reliability of semi-rigid base asphalt pavement structure based on direct probability integral method

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