Stabilizing the Peace After Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables

Caroline A. Hartzell · Matthew Hoddie · Donald S. Rothchild

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Political Conflict and Governance International Relations and Foreign Policy Peacebuilding and International Security

Abstract

In the wake of negotiated settlements to civil wars, one critical problem involves reassuring people who have been killing one another that conflict is not about to break out again, endangering people's lives. Those concerned with the success of negotiated settlements have debated how best to enhance the prospects of a stable peace. We address this question by exploring variables that may explain the longevity of negotiated peace settlements. These variables are divided into two categories—one tapping into the potential effects of the environment in which settlements are negotiated and another focusing on the impact of settlement arrangements. On the basis of our analysis of thirty-eight civil war settlements negotiated between 1945 and 1998 we identify the environmental factors and institutional choices that affect the short-term stability of the peace following civil war.

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References

1970Political Order in Changing Societies 1986Ethnic Groups in Conflict.1998Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable 1996Explaining Interethnic Cooperation 1995Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data 1997The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement 1982Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980 1995The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945–1993

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2008Do UN Interventions Cause Peace? Using Matching to Improve Causal Inference 2009Fostering Peace After Civil War: Commitment Problems and Agreement Design 2005Making and Keeping Peace 2007Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence 2003Scraps of Paper? Agreements and the Durability of Peace 2008Third-Party Intervention and the Civil War Process

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