CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH IN JAMAICA

Lavern McFarlane

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Abstract

The exchange rate has long been viewed as the nominal anchor in the design of monetary policy. However, recent trends in exchange rate movements and prices have raised questions about the nature of the pass-through. Against this background this paper analyses the relationship between exchange rate and prices in Jamaica and how this has evolved over the past twelve years. The results indicate that, in the long run, the exchange rate pass-through is ‘complete’. However the extent of the pass-through has slowed in recent years due in part to the shift to a tighter monetary policy regime and increased competition. Despite this however, exchange rate movements still have a significant influence on prices and inflationary expectations.

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