Economic Reform and the Changing Pattern of China’s Agricultural Trade

Abstract

The global impacts of China’s membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) are not well known, especially with regard to agricultural trade. The uncertainty arises because China’s agricultural trade regime has not been liberalized to the same extent as its trade in manufactures (Naughton, 1999; Martin, 1999). What might happen to world markets if and when China liberalizes its agricultural trade? Bach, Martin, and Stevens (1996) estimate substantial welfare gains to China from trade liberalization and joining the WTO. Wang (1997a) forecasts that China will become a consistent net importer of food. Based on its large and growing population and fluctuating grain stockpiles, others fear that China could destabilize world markets after agricultural trade liberalization (Wan and Anderson, 1990).

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