Identifying victims of groupthink from public statements of decision makers.

Abstract

The present study attempts to test hypotheses derived from Janis's groupthink analysis of several foreign policy decisions of the American government. Content analyses were performed using the public statements of key decision makers involved in crises for which Janis's case studies revealed or did not reveal evidence of groupthink. Consistent with Janis's theory, it was found that, relative to non-groupthin k decision makers, groupthink decision makers were more simplistic in their perceptions of policy issues and made more positive references to the United States and its allies (own group). Inconsistent with Janis's theory, groupthink decision makers did not make significantly more negative references to Communist states and their allies (opponents). Possible explanations for the findings are assessed, and methodological and practical obstacles to definitive testing of the groupthink model are examined.

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