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How well can composers judge their own ideas and works? This question remains largely unanswered, in part because qualitative data sources like quotations and anecdotes have not been systematically examined. This archival case study of Ludwig van Beethoven remedies this by comprehensively analyzing his self-critical statements. Explicit self-criticisms of 70 compositions were found in Beethoven's letters or conversations, spanning his whole career and most musical forms. Beethoven's positive or negative assessments are reliably associated with three citation measures of aesthetic success, and the likelihood of correct decisions strongly increased with age. His comments comparing several similar masterpieces are likewise largely consistent with expert ratings and recording counts. Finally, the ranking of works by listener-hours (number of complete recordings multiplied by performance duration) correspond closely to Beethoven's intra-genre preferences. The results suggest considerable self-critical acumen on Beethoven's part. The results support an expertise view of musical creativity in which knowledge and experience are likely to enable both progressively greater creative accomplishments and sounder self-criticism.
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